[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N20W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 3W-12W FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO NEAR 91W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED  SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN
TEXAS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 25O NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE...S OF 25N W OF 85W MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEST TO NEAR
17N71W.  ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS DRIVING THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHEAST S OF 13N E OF 76W. ELSEWHERE W OF 76W...STRONG TO
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
31N77W...RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH OVER CUBA TO NEAR 19N77W AND WEST
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 26N91W.
FURTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N62W...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 28N E
OF 65W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40KTS AND SEAS FROM 12FT-20FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-57W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEXES SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY INTO THE ARE
NEAR 30N55W AND CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N71W.... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE WITHIN 118 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER
EAST IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE.  A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 41N33W WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 17N52W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 23N26W...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-26N BETWEEN 18W-39W.

$$
JP/JA


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