[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 4W AND 11W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
COVERS THE EASTERN U.S.A. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL
HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N79W OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS AND MORE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A TROUGH IN THE ISOBARIC
FIELD HAS DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND FINALLY TO 19N100W IN MEXICO. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W
MOVING EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT...ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 32N58W...REACHES THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 130 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N60W
20N63W 18N67W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF 25N.
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...IN AN AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE LINE 17N73W 16N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS DRIVING THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST...
IN AN AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 12N80W 16N70W 20N60W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH IS PUSHING THE HIGHER CLOUDS
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE STORM CENTER IS NEAR 33N63W...FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 KT TO 40 KT AND SEAS FROM 12 FT TO 20 FT
NORTH OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO
30N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W...AND NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE 08/2100 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 30N58W TO 27N60W TO 20N67W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
AREA FROM 20N TO 30N WEST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM 9N50W TO 21N45W BEYOND 32N46W. THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY
FEATURE IS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 23N27W...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM
17N/18N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W/18W AND 31W/32W.

$$
MT



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