[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-16W FROM
EQ-4N E OF 9W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS N FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A RIDGE EXTEND S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRODUCING A SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM SRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND
THE SE U.S. TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD E OF FLORIDA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BY THU
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
TX/LA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA TO N JAMAICA TO 20N95W. W OF JAMAICA THE FRONT IS
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN WHILE SLOW DISSIPATING. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE....PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER AND TO THE
SW OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 6N54W IS PUSHING MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N64W WILL MOVE NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KTS...WITH SEAS AS
HIGH 20 FT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W SW TO
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E SE TO
31N50W18N62W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE CONVECTION
SPREADING S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20N. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W WITH A RIDGE AXIS S SW TO 12N37W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
S TO PUERTO RICO WITH THE AXIS BETWEEN 64W-68W. UPPER RIDGE  IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MAIN AXIS NEAR 45WE. CUTOFF LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N26W...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF
50W.

$$
RJO


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