[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-16W FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-23W AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 26N-31N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDS FROM 21N77W WEST TO NEAR 22N86W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PUSHED ITS WAY EAST OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 21N97W
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF TO NEAR 32N94W AND INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S....THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
BRINGING  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE
ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH
CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS LOCATED NEAR 21N77W TO 22N86W.
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THE FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSED.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE....PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 4N56W IS HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N68W CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45
KTS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH 20 FT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W THEN
CONTINUING WEST AS A DYEING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO NEAR 22N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
200 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  1034 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 38N16W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW TO 21N61W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO NEAR 30N75W CONTINUING
N OF THE AREA...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 25N40W TO NEAR 35W23W. A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N26W.

$$
JP/HC




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