[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
8W-10W...ELSEWHERE NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CUBA EXTENDING FROM
22N80W NORTHWEST TO NEAR 27N92W AND CONTINUING NW AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 30N93W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHING INTO THE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM
24N98W TO 32N95W THEN NE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN  AND IS LOCATED NEAR 22N78W TO
22N85W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
72W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
4N57W IS HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO COLUMBIA AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1002 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N70W HAS CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 50
KTS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH 24 FT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W THEN
CONTINUING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  1034
MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N16W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW TO
21N61W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO
NEAR 30N75W CONTINUING N OF THE AREA...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE AREA. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO NEAR 35W23W. A CUTOFF LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 23N26W.

$$
JP/HC



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