[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N40W 2N43W 1N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N11W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT24N80W 27N90W 30N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THR
FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE 15 KT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE GULF EXTENDING SW TO NE ALONG 95W-100W. A NW FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  70-90 UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER N FLORIDA N OF 27N IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE S THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF TODAY THEN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND WED WITH A RETURN FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT ELY SURFACE FLOW IS E OF 70W.  15-25 KT NE FLOW IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
SOUTHWEST HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 67W-73W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND WED BUT WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1005 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N724W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N .  A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS 32N40W 24N49W.  MULTILAYERED
OVERCAST BROKEN CLOUDS EXTENDS 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N.
1034 MB HIGH IO OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N15W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS SW TO 20N43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  A RIDGE N
OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-65W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W. A SECOND RIDGE
EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM 35W-40W. A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N25W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N
BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
TORRES


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