[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N40W 2N43W 1N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N11W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH S FLORIDA AND
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 25N85W 30N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE 15 KT WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF THE GULF EXTENDING SW TO NE ALONG
95W-100W. A NW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  70-90 UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER N FLORIDA N OF 27N
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE S
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THEN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT
AND WED WITH A RETURN FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT ELY SURFACE FLOW IS E OF 70W.  15-25 KT NE FLOW IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
SOUTHWEST HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 67W-73W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND WED BUT WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO 27N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N .THE LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE NE PULLING THE FRONT TO 31N54W 20N59W TO THE NORTH
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N54W. A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS 32N40W 22N51W.  MULTILAYERED OVERCAST BROKEN CLOUDS
EXTENDS 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. 1034 MB HIGH IO OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N15W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW TO 20N43W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  A RIDGE N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-65W
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM
35W-40W. A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N25W. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
RJO/MRF


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