[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N30W 3N42W 1N50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N FROM OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS THEN NW
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND COVERING THE GULF W OF 94W.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF N OF 20N FROM
94W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ALL OF THIS IS GIVING THE
GULF NW UPPER FLOW. COMPLEX SYSTEM OF LOWS IS N OF THE REGION
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS MOVING S INTO THE N GULF COAST THEN WILL SHIFT E
DURING THE DAY TODAY EXITING THE GULF BY WED. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE IS A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N91W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SPITE THE PRESENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF UNTIL THU
WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE IN THE DAY
THEN MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA FOR BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
W TO SW UPPER FLOW REIGNS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING
TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS
OF 50 TO 80 KT IS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N75W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W...ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FAR SE AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
60W-78W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND N COAST OF E
PANAMA...EXPECTING TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE FRONT FORMING OVER THE SE US WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY THU.
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ATLANTIC. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
US/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 38W. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 24N48W TO 19N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 29N41W TO E THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N53W. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 30W-50W THEN NARROWS SHARPLY TO N OF 32N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N.
A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 15N-32N
BETWEEN 14W-30W CENTERED NEAR 23N24W AND INCLUDES THE CANARY AND
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W SW TO 14N47W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS OVER THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LOW.

$$
WALLACE



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