[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070456
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N16W EQ28W 1N35W S OF THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OVER TEXAS
THEN NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND COVERING THE GULF W OF
90W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE E GULF N OF
23N FROM 90W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. COMPLEX SYSTEM OF
LOWS AND STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SE US. AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N93W.
ALL OF THIS IS GIVING THE GULF NW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF UNTIL THU WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE GULF LATE IN THE DAY THEN MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA FOR BY THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
W TO SW UPPER FLOW REIGNS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING
TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER PUERTO RICO GIVING THE ISLANDS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N75W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W...ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE
AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 673W-75W INCLUDING
THE ABC ISLANDS. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND N COAST OF E PANAMA...EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FRONT FORMING OVER
THE SE US WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE
TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY THU. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ATLANTIC. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
US/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 40W. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 26N49W TO 21N58W THEN PULLS UP STATIONARY TO OVER PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N42W ALONG 24N48W TO E THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N57W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 30W-50W THEN NARROWS SHARPLY TO N OF 32N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N.
A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 15N-30N
BETWEEN 15W-33W CENTERED NEAR 23N24W AND INCLUDES THE CANARY AND
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W SW TO 12N47W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS OVER THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LOW.

$$
WALLACE


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