[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N10W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W 2S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S.A.
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO
EAST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO
28N73W AND THEN TO 23N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS
IN THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1023 MB
HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N73W TO 26N82W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE GULF WATERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
SUPPORTS THE GULF COAST FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...SOUTH OF NICARAGUA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THESE TWO FLOW REGIMES EVENTUALLY COINCIDE SOMEWHERE
NEAR 70W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR PREVAILS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 19N53W
18N63W 15N73W 12N80W UNDER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N70W
17N73W 15N77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH WAS ALONG 65W TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO
HAS MOVED TO 27N55W BEYOND 33N53W AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE
STILL SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW PASSES THROUGH
32N44W TO 26N50W TO 20N60W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 30N44W 24N49W 20N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N56W
25N45W BEYOND 32N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE 17N56W 32N40W LINE NORTH OF 25N...AND ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SAME
LINE SOUTH OF 25N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
25N54W 21N61W 18N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...FROM 15N50W TO 23N42W TO 27N36W TO
BEYOND 32N29W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23N24W.
THIS LOW CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH MORE WELL-DEFINED DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW GOES FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 16W AT THE AFRICA COAST AND
30W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 35W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALSO IS FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
23N24W LOW CENTER.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net