[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W 1S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 23W-26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS ALONG 31N85W 30N94W. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W.  LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE FOUND AROUND THE HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  70-90 UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER N FLORIDA N
OF 29N IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH S THROUGH ALL OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT ELY SURFACE FLOW IS E OF 70W.  15-25 KT NE FLOW IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE.  OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAIN IS OVER N
VENEZUELA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 67W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N73W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 27N50W 21N60W TO
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N45W
20N53W.  MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDS 18O NM E OF THE TROUGH.  1036 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N21W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 18N42W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
35W-50W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 42W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CENTERED
NEAR 22N23W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN
10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA/OSZAJCA


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