[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N16W 1N24W 1N44W S OF THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US INTO THE N GULF N OF 29N
FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. THIS WILL FORM THE GALE CENTER OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MON/TUE MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY W TO TEXAS...IS EXPECTED
TO CLIP THE FAR N GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA IS CENTERED WITH A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 29N75W AND A SECOND WEAKER 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E
GULF NEAR 27N84W SEPARATED BY A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SE US WILL CLIP
THE N GULF LATER TODAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATE IN THE WEEK PRESENTING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW AGAIN REIGNS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
CONTINUING TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT IS JUST E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND N COAST OF E PANAMA...EXPECTING
TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 18N
BETWEEN 45W-75W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N54W TO 22N61W THEN DISSIPATES
OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N46W ALONG 23N52W TO JUST E THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N FROM 42W-47W. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT LEAVING COLD AIR SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 75W. BROAD...FAIRLY
STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 33W-45W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 26N. AN
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 17W-33W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE AREA
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS OVER THE AREA OF THE UPPER LOW.

$$
WALLACE



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