[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

10N11W 3N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...TO 2S40W...AND INTO
NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO 150 NM
OFFSHORE AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 35W AND
52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
1S31W 1N25W 3N19W...AND FROM 3N TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN
4W AND 9W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH STARTED OUT A FEW
DAYS AGO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...HAD MOVED OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THIS LOW CENTER NOW PRETTY MUCH HAS DISAPPEARED
COMPLETELY. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE ANY REMNANTS OF IT. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE TO THE
WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N85W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW RUNS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO 29N75W BEYOND 32N70W.
THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST JUST SOUTH OF 27N...JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND
THEN STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 26N82W 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 28N...AND INLAND TO THE NORTHWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONFLUENT FLOW/WHAT USED TO BE
A TROUGH...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N70W 30N60W BEYOND
32N58W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N63W 26N70W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF
26N80W 23N85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WIND IS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM TEXAS THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W
FROM INTERIOR MEXICO NORTHWARD TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N
WEST OF 40W...
THE WIND FLOW AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF WHAT USED TO BE THE WESTERN CUBA MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY
EXISTS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W...EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...
MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 34N2W ALONG THE ALGERIA/
MOROCCO BORDER TO 29N20W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N32W TO 25N50W 23N60W 23N70W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 27N26W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE 27N26W LOW TO A 42N11W
LOW CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE PORTUGAL/SPAIN COAST.
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N26W 29N20W 31N13W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 10W IN AFRICA AND 50W.

$$
MT

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