[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041650
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 3N19W TO THE EQUATOR 27W
THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S32W 3S40W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER IS OFF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL. ANOTHER NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 7W-9W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND INCLUDES MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 97W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR
THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
DISSIPATED. AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N80W 25N93W
THEN STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF CLOUDS...A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAKE THIS FRONT IDENTIFIABLE. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NE WINDS FROM 10-20 KT.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THERE ARE SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
CANADA...WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N53W. A BROAD RATHER FLAT UPPER
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.  UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY/WSWLY FROM 40-60 KT.  MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL
SCATTERED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF WILL NOT REACH THE
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG
THE NORTH COASTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE
IN STORE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W N OF 24N. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N59W 26N66W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD ABOUT 400 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABOUT 100 NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY N OF 26N. SOUTH OF
26N...ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THE FRONT. COLD AIR SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N65W. A LINE OF
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A
BROAD FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM
30W-60W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS S OF 27N. A 1029 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N33W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA E OF 30W N OF 20N. AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 25N26W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER
OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OR
CUT-OFF LOW.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO EXISTS IN THE EAST ATLANTIC
N OF THE ITCZ S OF 20N.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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