[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

7N11W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N15W-3N20W-EQUATOR AT
26W...AND FROM 3N TO 4S BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS
OF BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH STARTED OUT A FEW
DAYS AGO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF NOW FINDS ITSELF MUCH LESS
WELL-DEFINED...AND MOVING EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CUBA AND SOME OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
LOW CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN PUSHED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THE APPROACH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH...WHICH NOW IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO
29N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N...OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND THEN STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 27N82W 26N90W TO
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N...AND INLAND TO THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH THE CUBA LOW CENTER REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 25N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 35N55W 31N60W 27N65W. THE PRECIPITATION
THINS OUT WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N65W 26N68W 25N71W.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE RACING TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N70W 26N77W 24N84W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N63W 26N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF 26N80W 23N85W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND IS BLOWING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS FROM TEXAS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST OF
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N
WEST OF 40W...
THE WIND FLOW AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...POSSIBLY MOSTLY
AROUND THE WESTERN CUBA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE
IN THE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY EXISTS SOUTH OF
20N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W...EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...MAKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IN NORTHERN ALGERIA TO 30N15W TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 28N32W TO 26N45W 23N51W 23N67W 22N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 28N28W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE 28N28W LOW TO A 42N15W
LOW CENTER WHICH PROBABLY IS HEADING TOWARD THE PORTUGAL COAST.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND
27W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 23N
BETWEEN 10W IN AFRICA AND 50W.

$$
MT

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