[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W THEN DROPS S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 19W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MID-UPPER AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S WITH THE UPPER AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 101W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 90W.
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW EARLIER NEAR THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS PUSHED INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS NOW APPROACHING
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W...AND APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT INTO A TROUGH AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N84W TO 23N86W TO
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 26N AND E OF 86W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N E
OF 90W. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS NOT GETTING ANY BETTER DEFINED...AND MODEL CONSENSUS DOES
NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRIDGE SWD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
SUN THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUN NIGHT INTO TUE OF NEXT
WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA
TO TAMPA BAY...AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N86W TO
27N92W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE WNW INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ONLY A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG
AND TO WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER
REINFORCED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BY THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS IS GENERALLY WLY WITH AMPLE MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EXTREME NW PART WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW IS SEEN SWINGING SE INTO THE SEA.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE
CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL IS BEING EJECTED
NNE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 72W. PATCHES OF BROKEN
MOSTLY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO N OF 15N
BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN L0W CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH ARE
N OF 20N W OF 85W. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BRING EASTERLY TRADES TO THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 15N E OF 71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER TROUGHS BY PASSING MUCH OF THE REGION
PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. COAST
EXETNDS SW INTO SE GEORGIA AND SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N86W. SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH
32N65W AND CONTINUE SW ALONG 29N76W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
ONLY A FINE LINE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT
SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. ABOUT 200-400 NM SE OF
THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM 32N6W SW ALONG 29N66W TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS
TO NEAR 23N77W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 65W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 35 NM OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT
GENERALLY E OF 70W DUE TO A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...ONE
OF 1024 MB NEAR 27N38W AND THE OTHER OF 1025 MB NEAR 27N29W.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FAIRLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THIS PORTION
OF THE ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH
ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ATLANTIC. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF
OF 60-90 KT EXTENDS FROM 5N25W NE THROUGH 6N20W TO WELL
INLAND ACROSS AFRICA NEAR 9N13W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SE OF THE JET STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
AGUIRRE



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