[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031700
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N15W 1N23W 1S30W 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN
20W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF S AMERICA
BETWEEN 40W-52W FROM 4S-4N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MID-UPPER AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 100W. A MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W IS
PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 83W-89W FROM 18N-26N. THIS FEATURE HAS A SURFACE
REFLECTION AS A TROUGH FROM 20N87W TO 26N84W...HOWEVER...AS OF
LATE THIS MORNING IT HAS MORE CURVATURE TO ITS STRUCTURE AND MAY
BE CLOSING OFF AS A SURFACE LOW IF THIS KEEPS UP. GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT HAVE IT VERY WELL INITIALIZED AND THEREFORE ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY
DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ENTERED THE GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AS OF 1500 UTC...EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA
ALONG 29N81W 28N87W TO THE TEXAS COAST 29N95W. ONLY A NARROW
BAND OF CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES
S OF 26N W OF 91W. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TOMORROW BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N65W IS GENERATING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA E OF 80W. W OF 80W...BROKEN
MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 80W. TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE
TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE W
ATLANTIC AND GULF WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COASTS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC W
OF 40W WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N76W TO 27N71W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
AREA E OF 70W THANKS TO A PAIR OF 1025 MB SURFACE HIGHS LOCATED
NEAR 30N23W AND 27N32W. HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC PUSHING THE ITCZ SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 27W.  AN 80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL SWLY JET
EXTENDS FROM 6N13W TO 11N15W TO WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE NW OF THE JET AXIS FROM 50W EASTWARD S OF
22N. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE AXIS. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE W ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND EXTEND
FROM 32N54W TO 22N72W IN 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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