[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

6N10W 2N20W 1N30W...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W AND 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N
AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN-3N10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 TO 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE 5N12W 2N20W 1S30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N BETWEEN 85W AND
92W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE
GULF WATERS...EXTENDING INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND
CURVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT NEAR THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EAST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER. QUIKSCAT
WINDS UP TO AND INCLUDING LATE 01 MARCH WERE SHOWING EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS EAST OF 70W. ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W HAVE BEEN REPORTING EASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 01/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT OF WIND SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND
78W...HENCE THE CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 02/0900 UTC SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN EAST OF 70W...SOUTH
OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...AND NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 33N19W TO A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 29N32W TO 25N56W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N72W TO
26N79W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
REACHES 31N35W. A COLD FRONT MUCH MORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO BERMUDA TO 33N69W...AND
NORTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
BEING SUPPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BY A TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. MOST OF THE BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
OTHER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT ARE
NORTH OF 32N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS MOSTLY EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF 30N EAST OF 80W...EXCEPT FOR
THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 28W AND 55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TO 20W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN ALGERIA TO CENTRAL
MOROCCO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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