[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

7N10W 2N20W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE 3N10W-1N20W-THE EQUATOR AT 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF BRAZIL WITHIN 180 NM OF LAND BETWEEN 36W AND 46W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N BETWEEN 85W AND
91W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W
TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP
OF THE GULF WATERS...EXTENDING INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. A TROUGH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE
NEAR 28N86W AND THE 27N92W HIGH CENTER...FROM 27N88W TO 28N90W
TO 29N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ELSE
EXCEPT NEAR THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD TROUGH IN THE SURFACE ISOBARIC PATTERN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM A NORTHERN COLOMBIA/EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 9N73W...TO 15N75W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE PRECIPITATION IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER.
QUIKSCAT WINDS UP TO AND INCLUDING 01/2200 UTC SHOW EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS EAST OF 70W. ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W HAVE BEEN REPORTING EASTERLY
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 01/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT OF WIND SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...
HENCE THE CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 02/0300 UTC SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA
NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN EAST OF 70W...MOST
NOTABLY BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE CURVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W
NORTH OF 15N70W 14N76W 10N78W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W
AND 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N23W TO A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N34W
TO 26N41W 25N56W TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N77W NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N86W. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 33N65W TO 33N70W AND
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM
25N67W TO 30N60W BEYOND 35N60W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 70W. ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF 32N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TO 20W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
NORTHWESTERN ALGERIA TO CENTRAL MOROCCO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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