[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W EQ30W 4S40W 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN 11W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S
BETWEEN 39.5W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 19N89W 25N87W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC. 10-15 KT SLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N93W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF.  EXPECT SLY SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
25-30 KT ELY WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
LIGHTER 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. ONE OF THEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION IS CROSSING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S.VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF GUYANA
DOMINATES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA GIVING SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE ENTIRE
BASIN...BUT PARTICULARLY EAST OF 70W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28.5N-33.5W. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC FROM 30N38W TO 25.5N46W.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE AREA.
WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-40W. A TROUGH IS N OF 10N AND E OF 20W. WLY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS.

$$
GR



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