[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N0 4N10W EQ35W 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 3W-27W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW LOCATED INLAND
OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THE LOW HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION...ROUGHLY ABOUT 500 NM TO ITS N AND W...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND
BECOMING ENTRAINED TOWARDS THE CENTER. A TROUGH HAS BUILT TO THE
SURFACE FROM 20N91W TO 27N87W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
FORMED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
87W-91W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD ACROSS
S FLORIDA AND IS PRODUCING BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MOIST COASTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS FROM S TEXAS TO CNTRL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...BUT
DAYLIGHT IS QUICKLY BURNING THIS OFF. A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL MOVE
OFF THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT AND EASE ACROSS THE E GULF/FLORIDA
BY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA WITH RIDGE
AXES EXTENDING W ACROSS COSTA RICA AND E ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY WITH SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE...AND A 70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM HONDURAS NE
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC. THE AREA IS VOID OF ANY MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE CENTERED
NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A FEW LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SW OF JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE ATLC AREA WITH A
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. CONFLUENT FLOW IS
LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND RIDGING OVER SOUTH AMERICA...PRODUCING A NARROW SWATH
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W ATLC FROM 25N-28N. THE WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES E ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ALTHOUGH A BROAD
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 8N30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST E OF FRENCH GUIANA OVER THE
TROPICS NEAR 4N48W AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FARTHER NE OF THAT
NEAR 17N36W OVER THE OPEN ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM 9N-23N E OF 55W INTO W AFRICA. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W THEN EXTENDS WWD
TO THE NRN BAHAMAS/S FLORIDA. THE ONLY CONVECTION OF NOTE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE JUST N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

$$
BERG






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