[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W 4S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-35W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SMALL
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE
GULF EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
25N-30N E OF 93W. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N93W. AT THE SFC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
STATE AND MUCH OF THE GULF. SURFACE S/SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE
AREA AND HAS WARMED THE TEMPS TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF ORGANIZED
CLOUDS IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY SKIRT THE N GULF COAST LATE THU/EARLY FRI BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N52W. THIS UPPER HIGH HAS
CAUSED BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR
LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ONLY ALLOWING SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM E OF 60W. WEST OF 60W...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING WESTWARD DRIVEN BY 15-20 KT TRADES.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LIES OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THIS
CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. NO BIG
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN MODERATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC W
OF 40W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
A BROAD RATHER FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE AREA S OF
30N. AT THE SFC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
GENERATING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N42W 25N50W THEN STATIONARY TO 20N66W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 220 NM BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO THE LIFT TO THE N AND WEAKEN TOMORROW
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EAST OF 40W...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
EXISTS. AN MID-UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED NARROW RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 25W-40W. AT THE SFC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 30N34W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES E OF 25W. A SURFACE
998 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST
ORGANIZED TO THE NE OF THE LOW OVER N AFRICA SPREADING INTO THE
MEDITERREAN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SE AND DISSIPATE
TOMORROW.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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