[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010445
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N21W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 37W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES PUSHING E TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE GULF WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH GEORGIA WSW TO A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LOW NEAR 25N94W THEN S INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
NEAR 19N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA TO FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE
SE GULF WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N84W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES DURING MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SKIRTING THE N GULF LATE THU INTO FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF
25N GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN FOR
MOST THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N85W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC RETREATS
EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE US ACROSS TO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N W OF 38W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W SW TO 25N49W COMING UP
STATIONARY TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC TO 78W. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
LOCATED S OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N66W. UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE TROPICS NEAR 5N48W N ALONG 20N45W THEN NE TO BEYOND
32N27W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N34W.
A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC FROM AN UPPER
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 32N10W EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN WSW TO 17N37W. THE ASSOCIATED 1002 MB
SURFACE LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N13W. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 32N OR E INLAND OVER AFRICA. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...THUS
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE


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