[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ30W 4S40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
8W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3S-EQ BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W.  WARM 5-10 KT
SLY RETURN DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF S OF 27N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N94W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 88W-102W.  AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 80W-95W.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL
SURFACE MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BANKING ON THE NORTHERN COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND
E CUBA.  15-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY NEAR JAMAICA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W.  A 1026 MB
HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N69W.  A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 27N50W
22N60W 19N68W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N34W.  A 997 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N AND E OF
17W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A TROUGH IS N OF
10N AND E OF 30W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS AND
SUBTROPICS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 50W-60W...AND FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN
10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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