[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
EQ-3N BETWEEN 7W-10W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 15W-20W...AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 22W-24W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 30W-34W...
AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
TO E TEXAS ALONG 26N80W 26N90W 29N94W.  NO CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS ARE NLY NEAR 10-15 KT N OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER THE N
GULF.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N34W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... 50 KT WLY FLOW PREVAILS.  EXPECT THE WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND
DISSIPATE.  ALSO EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF
FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH  CONVECTION...WINDS...AND SEAS.  A
110-130 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL ALSO BE OVER THE N GULF N
OF 26N SAT MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS OVER HISPANIOLA
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  A PATCH OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-70W MOVING W WITH THE
TRADES.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE DUE TO NE SURFACE FLOW.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SEA.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA TOMORROW PRODUCING MORE
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N659W TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 54W-59W.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N43W.  A 1002 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N17W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N14W TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W AND DISSIPATES TO 24N19W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN
60W-80W.  A LARGE RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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