[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6.5N12W 2N20W 1N30W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE AXIS FROM -2N-1N BETWEEN 22W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM
-1N-4N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N-77W WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF...JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT IS ALONG CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY
EARLY SAT...WITH CONVECTION...MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS AND
SEAS. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TEXAS PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR STORM
SYSTEM FOR US THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE STATE OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW OF 50-60 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A 110-130
KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL ALSO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N
SAT MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER
THE NW SECTOR OF THE GULF N OF 28N. SLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO
OBSERVED OVER THE GULF...MAINLY WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS OVER HISPANIOLA
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
SIMILAR TYPE OF CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA DUE TO NE SURFACE FLOW. PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE BASIN...BUT PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF
80W...INCLUDING THE NORTH PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT THE
TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY PRODUCING MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500Z...A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAIT OF
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 27N68W.  ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-55W...THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG
25N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 51W-58W.  A
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC NEAR 29N40W.  A
1004 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N17W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N12W TO JUST SEAT OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N13W TO 26N-15W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC. WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 10W-60W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 8N-20W BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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