[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 5W-8W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
8W-13W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-24W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO E TEXAS
ALONG 27N80W 25N85W 29N95W.  NO CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE N NEAR 10-15 KT N OF THE FRONT.  THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE MORE COLD AIR OVER THE N GULF.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 34N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A SURFACE TROUGH LIES NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST ALONG 97W FROM 19N-24N.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO 20-25 KT SE RETURN FLOW.  THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN IN THIS REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... 50 KT WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  EXPECT A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
INCREASING MOISTURE...WINDS...AND SEAS. ALSO EXPECT A 110-130 KT
JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N BY FRI NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  A PATCH OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-70W MOVING W WITH THE
TRADES.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE DUE TO NE SURFACE FLOW.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SEA.  EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO
TRAVERSE HISPANIOLA TOMORROW PRODUCING MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N73W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SE TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC 32N62W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W.  A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS FROM 32N57W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
55W-62W.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
29N43W.  A 1000 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N17W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N15W AND DISSIPATES TO 23N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A LARGE
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA




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