[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050948
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 05 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 14N53W 12N57W 6N58W MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN LINED UP WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS
BEEN ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EITHER RIGHT ALONG THIS
LINE AND/OR JUST EAST OF THE WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE HUGGING THE COAST FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA BETWEEN
53W AND 59W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N10W 5N20W 4N37W 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN
AFRICA NEAR 10W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 24W
AND 35W...IN AN AREA OF A TROUGH/BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HEALTHY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SWINGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO MISSOURI...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD THE CURRENT
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT/COLD FRONT SYSTEM...WHICH RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS NOT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES YET IN ORDER TO PRODUCE ITS GREATEST EFFECT OR
RESULT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COLD FRONT
TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEARING OUT
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHEAST...PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N74W TO
30N78W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N87W. COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND
86W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. OTHER SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND
87W IN THE EASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL...MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL...ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANYING A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE...
ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N55W 14N59W 11N63W.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE AS THE REST OF THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST. A CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ENTER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 31N74W TO 30N78W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N87W.
COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W.
REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
OF 26N WEST OF 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 50W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 31N30W. THE
1004 MB CENTER NEAR 30N32W...HAD BEEN CAUSING STORM-FORCE WIND
SPEEDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...AND GALE FORCE
WIND CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE SIX HOURS AGO. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...NOT AS WELL-PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGE SUCH
AS YESTERDAY...IS IN BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC CENTER AND
THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN OCCLUSION RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF THE
CENTER...NEAR 30N34W TO THE 33N28W TRIPLE POINT. A WARM FRONT
GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 31N22W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT TO 27N27W 20N30W 17N36W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
17N36W 14N43W. THE CLOUDS WITH COMPARATIVELY THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AND THE DEEPER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM.

$$
MT




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