[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 05 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT.  THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS DISPLACING MOST
OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE E OF THE AXIS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11.5N-15N BETWEEN
55W-61W INCLUDING BARBADOS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM
12N-15.5N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N32W 5N45W 4N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ FROM
38W-46W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN
30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA
TODAY AS A POTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SWD ALONG 90W INTERACTS WITH THE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE SE GLFMEX DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR ORLANDO WESTWARD TO
A DEVELOPING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N85W. COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM
THE LOW TO 22N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE NEWD DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  AS IT DOES...IT WILL DRAG THE PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE E GLFMEX/ FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS . LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE SE GLFMEX MOVING
ASHORE SW FLORIDA FROM TAMPA SWD TO THE KEYS...AND A SECOND OVER
N FLORIDA N OF ORLANDO.  THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW COURTESY OF DRY
TO THE WEST WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER.  THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC THEN NEWD ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARING S
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT DRYING THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH WILL PRODUCE RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEWD ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.  THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
COVERING ALL BUT THE EXTREME W PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SW.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SE GLFMEX.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ADVANCING SEWD TODAY AND MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ENTERING THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY.  THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE N OF THE
AREA.  HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE.
FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
E CUBA.  ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE AREA
OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST.  EXPECT HIGHER THAN
USUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFYING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE GLFMEX WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS N FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL SWEEP A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE.  IN FACT...ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE EXTREME W ATLC
WATERS MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO BEYOND
32N75W.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE W
ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.  THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST UPPER DYNAMICS
LIFT N OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...FROM PUERTO RICO TO
BEYOND 32N55W...IS PRODUCING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.  OVER
THE E ATLC...THE DEEP LAYERED LOW NEAR 31N31W CONTINUES TO LIFT
SLOWLY NWD.  MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOW N OF 30N.  ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ALONG 31N25W 25N26W 19N30W.  EXPECT THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
WINDS TO BE N OF THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.  OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AREAS OF DUST NOTED S OF A LINE FROM 25N25W 15N40W 12N60W
TO THE ITCZ.

$$
RHOME


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