[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 04 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED NE TO SW ALONG 4N57W 13N54W MOVING W
5-10 KT.  THE UPPER-AIR TIMESECTION FROM CAYENNE SHOWED THE WAVE
PASSAGE YESTERDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  THE WAVE IS COMPRISED OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 8N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N25W 4N36W 6N53W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE S OF 6N BETWEEN 34W-40W... PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2.5N-6.5N
BETWEEN 17W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING
WITH A TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
NW GULF CAUSING DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.  THESE TSTMS ARE FORMING
PREFERENTIALLY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FROM ABOUT CAPE
CANAVERAL INTO A 1012 LOW NEAR 27N86W WITH A FORMING COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN.  UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE
POTENT WITH OTHER ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE W
GULF BETWEEN 24N-27N W OF 93W.  ANOTHER WET DAY SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW OVER FLORIDA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES... LIKELY
STRENGTHENING THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING
ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.  MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THRU S FLORIDA BY DAWN
FRIDAY WITH DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY QUIET TODAY WITH A FEW TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NW CUBA AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH.  OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTMS ARE
FIRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF SAN ANDRES ISLANDS W OF 80W.  A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS CAUSING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN FROM
BARBADOS SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF GUADELOUPE OVERNIGHT AS THE REST OF THE
SYSTEM MOVES IN.  TRADE WIND SHOWERS SPECKLE THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN... LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE.  THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED... WITH AN UPPER
HIGH OVER NW VENEZUELA GIVING MOSTLY ZONAL... SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  A CONTINUATION OF THE WET
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE THE UPPER HIGH PERSISTS.  THE WAVE ALONG 57W WILL MOVE
THRU IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING TRADEWIND SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ALL OF THE WEATHER IS CONCENTRATED AROUND TWO FEATURES...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW ATLC AND THE POWERFUL LOW IN THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC.  STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO
30N72W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WITH SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF
77W.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD FADE AWAY TO MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER REFORMATION TOMORROW DURING MAXIMUM
HEATING AS BOUNDARIES OVERLAND MOVE OFFSHORE.  BROAD UPPER
RIDGING COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC N OF 20N UNTIL 45W WHERE A
1000 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 30N33W.  THE LOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD... FIRING ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR AND NE OF THE LOW N
OF 30N BETWEEN 25W-33W.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT
NEAR 32N30W SE TO 26N28W 19N32W 15N42 WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 25N.  WARM FRONT IS ALONG 31N
BETWEEN 22W TO 30W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE FRONT.  UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
AXIS FROM 31N32W TO 21N41W THEN 6N55W WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SQUELCHING MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION W OF TROUGH
AXIS.  A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT IS LIKELY WITH THE LOW BEFORE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  THE LOW HAS CAUSED
THE ATLC TRADEWINDS TO BECOME MUCH LESS THAN AVERAGE E OF 40W
WITH ONLY A FEW STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR NW SAHARA.  OTHERWISE BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED ITCZ TSTMS.

$$
BLAKE

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