[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 12 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N6W 2N30W 2N40W 1N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN 3W-13W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N94W WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AND EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE
SOUTHEAST AND IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N69W SW TO THE KEY
LARGO AND THEN WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
23N88W....THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL CLEAR THE GULF BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES PUSH INTO THE GULF
WITH SPEEDS FROM 70 TO 110 KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SOUTH OVER CUBA
AND JAMAICA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA THEN WNW OVER EL SALVADOR. COLD
FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL OVER TAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHWARD FROM THE ITCZ THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.  ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF 80W.  ELSEWHERE...EAST OF 80W
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE VENEZUELAN COAST WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WEST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...
EXTENDING FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS.  FURTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THE
DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG ON AND
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF TO NEAR 67W S
OF 26N.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHWARD
TO NEAR 35N FROM THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE VENEZUELAN
COAST.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
IS LOCATED NEAR 24N37W WITH RIDING EXTENDING EAST TO NEAR 59W
AND WEST TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N24W TO 4N46W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS. AN AREA OF DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ELONGATED BETWEEN THIS AXIS AND
THE FLOW FROM ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA...EXTENDING FROM CASABLANCA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 7N55W.

$$
JP/MN




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