[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 12 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 1N15W EQ30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 15W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W.  THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG
24N76W 24N84W.  NO CONVECTION AND VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY
10-15 KT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH FAIR SKIES.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 100-130 KT JET
STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO JAMAICA TO
NE NICARAGUA ALONG 21N76W 13N84W.  A BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A BAND OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
60W-70W MOVING W WITH THE TRADES. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N
VENEZUELA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 10N64W 20N60W 32N48W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N62W 27N70W AND
DISSIPATES OVER THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  A BAND OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT E OF 70W.  A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO E CUBA ALONG 30N44W 26N60W 23N70W 21N76W.   BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N
OF FRONT.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N37W.
AN AREA OF SAHARA DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF
35W MOVING SLOWLY W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N60W
32N48W.  A 150-180 KT JETSTREAM GOES OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ALONG 29N70W 32N48W 30N40W ACCOMPANIED WITH A BAND
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 45W WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N17W TO 7N45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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