[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 12 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N1W 3N10W 2N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...1S50W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W AND 10W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 7W AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 40N
EAST OF 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM
40 TO 70 KT ARE BLOWING FROM THE WATER TO INTERIOR MEXICO IN THE
AREA SOUTH OF 20N AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM 70 TO 110 KT COVERS THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA EAST COAST TROUGH
HAS MOVED MORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND ITS BASE
IS NEAR 30N72W SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
32N74W TO 28N80W...CURVING ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N82W ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 24N90W TO 24N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO THE CENTRAL
NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. THOSE SAME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE MIDDLE OF CUBA...HAITI...AND
JAMAICA...AND WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N78W 15N80W
11N84W AT THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS PUSHING SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC FROM
FLORIDA TO 60W NORTH OF 20N. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
SURFACE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 31N47W TO 25N60W
TO 22N70W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N75W...IS NORTH OF 30N MAINLY BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. A MARKED LINE OF DRY AIR IS WITHIN
400 TO 500 NM WEST OF 16N24W...OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 13N34W TO 7N40W 3N42W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS EAST OF THIS 17N25W 3N48W LINE. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ABOUNDS EAST OF THE DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO AFRICA...AROUND A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N36W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM ITS BASE IN NORTHERN MAURITANIA TO JUST EAST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS BEYOND 32N13W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 34N17W.

$$
MT



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