[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 04 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N8W 2N15W 2N40W 1N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-13W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE S OF 3N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...WEST ATLANTIC...NW CARIBBEAN...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION W OF FLORIDA
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN TO
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.  1010 MB LOW IS BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND
NASSAU WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO 24N72W AND A COLD
FRONT SW APPROACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL BELIZE.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND STEADIER RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NEAR/N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
72W-77W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA
IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE W
ATLC FROM N CUBA TO JUST OFFSHORE OF N CAROLINA.  GENERALLY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM MEXICO AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET RECHARGES
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THE EPAC.  RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...PROBABLY A STRONG ONE FOR
MARCH...ENTERING THE GULF ON MON.

REST OF CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NW PORTION.  SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM THE EPAC ITCZ CONVECTION.  MOST SIGNIFICANT
TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
WITH PASSING RAIN IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
SLOWLY... AFFECTING HISPANIOLA BY TOMORROW AND INTO PUERTO RICO
LATE SUN.  THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND SHOULD SEE MORE
TYPICAL RAIN CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE
BAND WITH THE DECAYED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS SEPARATE MORE TROPICAL AIR FROM THE MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER THE MID-LATITUDES.  FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALONG
31N38W 24N47W 21N60W WITH LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED EXCEPT FOR
THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 25N.  SECOND.. STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N45W 26N52W 24N64W 24N72W WITH
CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.  UPPER
RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W... LIMITING
ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THESE FRONTS TO BE ISOLATED.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SECOND FRONT AS UPPER
TROUGHING FROM THE W ATLC ALLOWS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  TYPICAL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AND WEAKENED... FAR TO THE S...
BEING 1018 MB NEAR 21N35W RIDGING W TO 19N59W.  DEEP UPPER
TROUGH LIES IN THE E ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS THRU THE CAPE
VERDES TO 2N27W... PERMITTING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU NW
AFRICA NEAR NW MAURITANIA TO 20N28W.  UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NIL SO
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION AND ... WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING...
HARDLY ANY CLOUD-LINES DEFINING THE FRONT.   ITCZ CONVECTION IS
SCANT WITH GENERAL WLYS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N.

$$
BLAKE



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