[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 04 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N9W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 3N45W 1N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. DISSIPATING AND REMNANT SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N13W 4N17W 2N20W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF 130W
MOVES TO THE MEXICO COAST...AND MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AS
WESTERLY FLOW. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 100 TO 130 KT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTERIOR MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS RANGE FROM 80 TO 100 KT. THE WIND
DIRECTION IS FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF TO
FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS RIDING ON TOP OF A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
AN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N82W. COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE SAME ISTHMUS NORTHWESTWARD TO 24N100W AND BEYOND 30N102W.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N86W
IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND RAIN ARE SOUTHEAST OF 28N80W 26N84W 23N85W. SIMILAR CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE EAST OF 30N86W 26N83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO AN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 23N82W. COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS CARRYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHER HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM VENEZUELA
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER THE AREA FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND 85W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N58W IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO 20N62W TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. IT APPEARS
THAT SHOWERS MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HAITI/
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...IN SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W...AND IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLUSTERS AND LINES OF LOW
CLOUDS SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 30W. THE EASTERNMORE COLD FRONT AS IT
IS NOW IS THE RESULT OF THE MERGER OF THE TWO COLD FRONTS FROM
24 HOURS AGO...PASSING THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N50W TO 22N58W.
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N58W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO 20N62W TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. A SECOND COLD FRONT...NEWLY
FORMED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
29N50W TO 25N60W AND 25N67W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN A
BAND ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N44W 32N52W
30N60W...AND WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N60W
27N70W 24N77W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE AREAS OF RAIN IN
THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. THE 32N39W 22N58W 20N62W FRONT IS MARKED
BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 30 TO
45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N51W 21N60W 20N68W...AND WITHIN 60 TO
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N51W 26N45W BEYOND 30N34W. RAIN MAY
BE IN THIS CLOUD LINE ALSO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 33N14W JUST EAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT RUNS FROM 22N24W TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO.

$$
MT


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