[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 191653
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
   AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTS...
...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM... NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT
210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EMILY IS CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM. DURING PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH. OUTER
RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE COASTS OF
FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE NOON CDT POSITION...24.0 N... 94.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 95 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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