[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 24 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N16W 4N23W ALONG THE EQUATOR
NEAR 42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N FROM 10W-18W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 20W-40W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LEADING EDGE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES...IS MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI
AND ACROSS THE N GULF AND IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY AS
IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IGNITING AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE. A SECOND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING
RAPIDLY E TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE TEXAS. BANDS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF
26N E OF 95W. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC LATER THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAKING ACROSS THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD/FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A
DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE E TRADES
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC. POCKETS OF MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING WITH THE TRADES AND THE LEAST SIGNIFICANT AREA ALONG A
REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 73W-82W. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND N WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 52W-66W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF W
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ATLC W OF 35W AND IS UNDERLAID BY A WEAKENING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 24N/25N WITH A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC
NEAR 26N71W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N39W.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MOVING S AND IMPINGING
UPON THE RIDGE. THE FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N43W
TO 27N61W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N75W. WHILE LACKING
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 57W. EXPECT THE PORTION OF
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS E OF 55W TO CONTINUE
MOVING S. MEANWHILE...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 65W WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FARTHER E...A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE AZORES S INTO THE AREA N OF 24N E OF 30W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 25N17W TO NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N22W
AND IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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