[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 24 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N14W 1N18W THEN SW 2S41W
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N FROM 11W-16W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR FROM 20W-40W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LEADING EDGE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES...IS MOVING INTO ALABAMA AND
ACROSS THE N GULF AND IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IGNITING AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE. A SECOND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVING
RAPIDLY E TO LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST. BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N W
OF 95W. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAKING ACROSS THE
AREA AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD/FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A
DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE E TRADES
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC. POCKETS OF MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING WITH THE TRADES AND THE LEAST SIGNIFICANT AREA ALONG A
REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 72W-82W. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND N WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 58W-66W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 63W S OF 19N.  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY IN
PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.  ELSEWHERE BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
ATLC W OF 35W AND IS UNDERLAID BY A WEAKENING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG A LINE FROM A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC
NEAR 31N64W TO A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N45W. A
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MOVING SE AND IMPINGING UPON
THE RIDGE ALONG 32N39W TO 27N51W TO 26N61W. WHILE LACKING
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 57W. EXPECT THE PORTION OF
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS E OF 55W TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE. MEANWHILE...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 58W WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FARTHER E...A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS S INTO THE AREA N OF
25N E OF 25W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W SE
INLAND TO AFRICA TO NEAR 25N13W.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 26N E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS. FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TROPICAL ATLC WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EQUATOR.

$$
CZARNIECKI/EB


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net