[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 24 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR
31W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3N135.W-1.5N18W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 26W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 40W-44W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-21W.
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 3N30W-1N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LEADING EDGE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES...IS MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND THE NW GULF AND IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT AS IT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IGNITING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE. THE STRONGEST AND MOST
NUMEROUS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA WITH A
SECOND AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-93W. THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC LATER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE GULF...MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAKING ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD/FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A
DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE E TRADES
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC. POCKETS OF MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING WITH THE TRADES AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA ALONG A
REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 67W-77W. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD AND N WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-64W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF W
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF
35W AND IS UNDERLAID BY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
24N/25N WITH A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 26N67W AND A 1022
MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N46W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS MOVING S AND IMPINGING UPON THE RIDGE. THE FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N46W TO 28N71W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES.
WHILE LACKING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 58W. EXPECT
THE PORTION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS E OF 55W
TO CONTINUE MOVING S. MEANWHILE...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF
65W WILL GET PULLED N OF THE AREA. FARTHER E...A DEEP LAYERED
LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE AZORES S INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 10W-30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W
ALONG 24N20W TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N29W AND IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA INCLUDING
THE CANARY ISLANDS. FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC WITH 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG 20N W
OF 25W. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR E ATLC
IMPLYING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO JUST N OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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