[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 09 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N0 5N10W EQ25W 1N35W 2S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
1W-8W OVER SW GHANA AND SRN IVORY COAST. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG S OF THE AXIS FROM 1N-4N E OF 2W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN HUNG UP OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TX IS NOW ON THE MOVE AND IS BEGINNING TO SURGE SWD E
OF THE SIERRA MADRES. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
LAKE CHARLES LA SW TO BROWNSVILLE TX...THEN TO NEAR MONTERREY
AND MONCLOVA MEXICO NWWD TO THE BIG BEND OF TX. THE POSITION
OVER MEXICO IS BASED ON THE SWD MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS E OF THE
STEEP MTN SLOPES. THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT BUT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING E OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS S TX...AS WELL AS CROSSING THROUGH SE LA. A SFC
RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N77W TO A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF NEAR
25N89W...AND THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES
WITH THE THICKEST CLOUDS LIMITED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE U.S. GULF
COAST. IN ADDITION...BROAD WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION
IS BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS N MEXICO TO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A POTENT 130
KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
AND FL BY 48 HRS BUT THERE IS A LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY SO ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST
BETWEEN LA AND N FL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING SEWD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST AND IS
PRODUCING STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE S OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE SO THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION. A SFC
TROF CONTINUES TO EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLC FROM ABOUT
ST. LUCIA/ST. VINCENT SW TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W
WITH BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM TO THE
NW. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CLOUDS
FIELD AND OCCASIONALLY MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. VINCENT
AND ST. KITTS/NEVIS. A FEW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ALSO EXTEND
ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELAN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IS SLIDING EWD FROM FL TO THE W ATLC WATERS
WITH A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF ST. AUGUSTINE FL NEAR 30N77W.
THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY W/NWLY OVER THE W ATLC AS IT ENTERS
THE BASE OF A BROAD TROF BETWEEN 45W-55W. THE DEEP LOW WHICH HAD
BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS
FINALLY STARTED MOVING TO THE NE AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR
35N53W. A SFC TROF...OR PERHAPS MORE OF CONVERGENCE
LINE...EXTENDS TO THE SE OF THE LOW ALONG 32N47W 23N51W AND A
SHARP TROF COLLOCATED IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN 42W-46W. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HRS HOWEVER...AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY STARTING A SLOW DISSIPATION. THE SFC TROF
HAS BECOME SPLIT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE N...AND A PIECE IS
LEFTOVER EXTENDING NE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 13N61W
18N51W. THERE IS A BONA FIDE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM TO THE NW.
FARTHER E...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG 37W AND IS
BEING UNDERCUT BY A 70 KT WESTERLY JET WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS
THE TROPICS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. A LARGE AND
STATIONARY UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE W MEDITERRANEAN SEA SW
PAST THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH 1018 MB LOW PRES BUILDING DOWN TO
THE SFC ALONG THE MOROCCO/WRN SAHARA BORDER. A SFC TROF AXIS IS
SWINGING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG 28N12W 28N20W 31N26W
WITH A FEW CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. DRY
STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF W AFRICA TO ABOUT 25W AND IS
THE ONLY PART OF THE ATLC WITH NO NOTICEABLE CLOUD COVER.

$$
BERG




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