[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 09 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N7W 1N20W 3N30W 5N40W 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 6N47W 5N35W 2N24W
5N10W 5N1W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING PACIFIC OCEAN
MOISTURE TO MEXICO AND MOST OF TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWEST OF 26N80W 25N90W 20N97W. GENTLE AND GRADUAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT STRADDLES THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM AN 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO MEXICO EAST
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO AN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM EAST
TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CONTINUAL DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
THROUGH 14N60W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST...
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTHWEST OF 20N60W 17N66W 13N69W. HIGH
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL IS COMING OFF SOUTH AMERICA...
EXITING THE CARIBBEAN AREA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AS
UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BROAD AND
GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF THE MOSTLY-ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEANS. THE CYCLONIC CENTER
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 34N54W. THE SURFACE 1001 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33.5N 56W...FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR 40N50W AFTER 24 HOURS. SURFACE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 23N50W
TO 14N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RUNS FROM NORTHERN ALGERIA...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
MOVING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO CENTRAL MOROCCO. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 7N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N45W 14N60W FRONTAL TROUGH. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT



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