[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 09 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 5N10W 1N20W 1N35W 1N50W 3N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 11W-14W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO ALONG 30N89W 27N94W 25N98W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
NW TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 25N100W
30N103W.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS S OF 30N MOVING E.  EAST OF THE FRONT A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DUE TO A 1020
MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W PRODUCING RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES.   IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REGION BRINGING HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS N MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF AND FLORIDA WITHIN 30 HOURS.  THERE IS A LIMITED MOISTURE
SUPPLY WITH THIS FRONT SO ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND N FLORIDA
TOMORROW MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA ALONG 14N60W 10N67W.  A BAND OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA IS
POSSIBLE.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA DUE TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA MOVING SE.  ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT.

ATLANTIC...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N75W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 31N46W 25N47W 14N60W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S
OF 30N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WEAK RIDGE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH AXIS
ALONG 70W.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 73W-80W MOVING E. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 43W-60W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-43W.
RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 37W.  A BAND OF MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
COVERS THIS AREA.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
MOROCCO NEAR 30N10W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN
30W-60W...AND FROM EQ-10N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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