[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 05 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N15W 6N18W 4N23W 3N30W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N30W 1N39W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 39W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N114W TO 21N117W AND 15N126W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...NOW COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS RIDGE ARE REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE PASSES OVER FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO BROAD WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF CYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF 50W.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS EXITED THE AREA
COMPLETELY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW IS IN CONTROL...WITH
A RIDGE FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTH TEXAS...AND CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL RANGE...17N97W 20N102W 30N109W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
CUBA NEAR NEAR 22N80W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 17N88W
20N85W 21N79W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
37N56W...SUPPORTING TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
THROUGH 32N49W TO 26N52W 22N56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N45W 20N50W 14N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ON
EITHER SIDE 14N52W 16N50W 18N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 21N47W 24N45W...FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...
AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. TWO DIFFERENT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE PART OF THE SYSTEM
SUPPORTING A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA
NEAR 22N80W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH OF 32N65W
28N64W 24N67W 21N77W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 80W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH COMBINATION COVERS THE REST
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 34W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL MOROCCO...WITH THE RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 37N56W
CYCLONIC CENTER. SURFACE RIDGE 14N48W 20N40W 27N35W BEYOND
32N32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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