[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 04 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N35W 1N50W 3N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 28W-35W AND FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1032 MB HIGH IS OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N95W.  COLD FRONT HAS
COMPLETELY TRAVERSED THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT.  NORTHERLY 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.
PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 88W.  A 100-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF EXTENDING FROM SE TEXAS TO S LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
EXPECT... THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND..
BRINGING WARM/MOIST SLY FLOW OVER SE TEXAS BY SUN ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL REACH THE NW
GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA ALONG 23N80W 21N86W 17N91W MOVING SLOWLY S.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  BANDS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. TRADEWIND
SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED AT BEST.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT...OCEAN SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTH SHORES OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AS THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW E
OF BERMUDA PULLS OUT OF THE REGION.  ANOTHER LOW SHOULD FORM IN
THE W ATLANTIC IN ITS PLACE... LIKELY SENDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE SWELLS FOR NEXT WEEK... AS WELL AS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THROUGH PUERTO RICO LATE SUN.  NEAR-RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN PUERTO RICO WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST.
THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
DEEPER INTO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
1010 MB LOW IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N73W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO E CUBA NEAR 23N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
A STRONG 992 MB DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA NEAR
33N55W E OF BERMUDA.  THIS LOW IS STILL SPREADING GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT
AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHWARD.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE LOW'S E
SIDE FROM 31N51W TO 27N50W 22N55W WITH DIVERGENCE ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...  LARGE
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH DIVERGENCE CAUSING
PLENTY OF ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 25W.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG FROM
EQ30W TO 6N67W WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM CIRRUS DEBRIS OVERSPREADING
THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 16N.  UPPER TROUGH LIES IN THE FAR NE
ATLANTIC ALONG THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO NW SAHARA WITH LITTLE
SURFACE WEATHER IMPACTS.  A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST/DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR REMAINS IN THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ E OF A LINE FROM
5N35W THROUGH THE NW CAPE VERDES TO THE SE CANARY ISLANDS...
INHIBITING ALMOST ALL LOW/ MIDDLE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER.
ZONAL FLOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 10N-20N.  A
80-100 KT JETSTREAM IS ALONG 10N50W 15N30W 14N15W.

$$
FORMOSA


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