[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 05 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 4N20W 2N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N112W TO 15N123W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...NOW COVERING
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS RIDGE
ARE REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE PASSES
OVER FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF CYCLONIC
FLOW WEST OF 50W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
EXITED THE AREA COMPLETELY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW IS IN
CONTROL...WITH A RIDGE FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...AND CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL RANGE...17N97W 20N102W 30N109W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
CUBA NEAR NEAR 22N80W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO TO CENTRAL BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 16N87W 18N85W 19N80W
19N78W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
38N56W...SUPPORTING TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N46W 20N50W 15N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N47W 24N43W 27N42W 30N42W
BEYOND 32N44W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N50W 28N51W
23N54W. THE TWO DIFFERENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS FROM SIX HOURS AGO ARE BECOMING LESS
DISTINCT AND ARE BECOMING ONE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC SWIRL
BORDERING THE AREA...FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTING A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N68W TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TO CENTRAL BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT...AND NORTH
OF 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE WEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH OF 32N67W 30N63W 24N63W
21N70W 21N75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 80W. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH COMBINATION COVERS THE REST
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 34W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL MOROCCO...WITH THE RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 38N56W
CYCLONIC CENTER. SURFACE RIDGE 14N48W 20N40W 27N35W BEYOND
32N32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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