[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 081453
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

HARVEY IS STEADILY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER... AND ALONG A NARROW BAND STRETCHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KT...WHICH
IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
AS HARVEY GOES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 HOURS... OR
LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...NOW 050/19.
HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT HARVEY WILL SLOW DOWN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEANDER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
LEAVE THE STORM BEHIND...WHERE IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT
MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL DAYS
FROM NOW.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR HARVEY WILL TRAVEL
EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING...WITH NOGAPS BEING THE FAST OUTLIER AND
THE GFS AND GFDL BEING MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION BUT IS STILL FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED ACCELERATION THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 40.3N  47.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 41.2N  45.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 42.2N  42.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 42.7N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 42.9N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 43.0N  35.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 42.5N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1200Z 42.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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