[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 081500
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED
FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION TO ITS EAST THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 0820Z MISSED MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION BUT DID INDICATE SOME 35 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  HOWEVER... AT THAT
TIME THE CONVECTION WAS DEEPER AND MORE INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER THAN IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... SO IT IS
PROBABLY SAFE TO ASSUME THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 30 KT.  IRENE IS
THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS.  A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RESUMED JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS THE START OF A
COMEBACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS INTERDEPENDENT TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT FOR IRENE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD...ONE
COULD AFFECT THE OTHER PERHAPS MORE SO THAN USUAL.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  BASED ON A IRENE REMAINING WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS SCENARIO IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL...ECMWF...AND BAM SHALLOW SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 22.4N  50.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  52.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  54.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  56.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.6N  58.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 31.0N  67.0W    45 KT


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