[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 192034
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

KARL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CLASSICAL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE WITH PROMINENT BANDING
FEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THREE-HOUR
AVERAGE ODT'S ARE NEAR T6.3...120 KT...AGREEING WELL WITH TAFB'S
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T6.0.  IN ADDITION... A 1707 UTC
CIMSS/NESDIS AMSU PRESSURE ALGORITHM ESTIMATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 941 MB.  THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE RAISED TO 115 KT AND THE
PRESSURE IS SET TO 944 MB IN BETWEEN THE AMSU AND DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.. 290/9.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD... A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO
ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP
RECURVATURE EAST OF 50W.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
CONSENSUS.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER RANGES WHETHER KARL
WILL BE ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OR REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THE LATTER POSSIBILITY WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE
AT LONG RANGES IF THE ABSORPTION SCENARIO OCCURS.

KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE
SHEAR.  THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48
HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL
FOR THE CYCLONE.  IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AND THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 17.0N  44.0W   115 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.6N  45.5W   120 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N  47.2W   125 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.9N  48.3W   125 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N  49.1W   125 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  48.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 35.0N  45.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 44.0N  40.5W    80 KT


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