[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 192036
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KARL PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  44.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST WED SEP 22 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

18.5N  47.2W      55  X  X  X 55   21.7N  49.1W      10 17  1  1 29
19.9N  48.3W      36  3  X  X 39

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE


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