[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 19 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTER...AT 19/1500 UTC...NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
OR ABOUT 130 MILES/210 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN
THE BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTH 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES/140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COMPARATIVELY COLDEST
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
JEANNE...WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N71W 24N70W
25N70W 26N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF
JEANNE...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 70.5W AND 72W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND
71W.

HURRICANE KARL CENTER...AT 19/1500 UTC...NEAR 16.4N 42.9W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN EYE IS EASILY
DETECTABLE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE COMPARATIVELY
COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN 50 TO 80 NM OF THE
CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 37W AND 48W.

1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N31W...ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
WELL ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 31.5W AND 34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH APPEARED TO BE ABOUT TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AT 19/0600 UTC WAS DROPPED FROM THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 19/1200 UTC. IT DID NOT SHOW UP IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
AREA WHERE THE WAVE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS DID NOT SHOW MUCH EITHER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 15N17W 12N20W 12N30W 15N40W 14N45W 10N55W 10N63W...
TO 11N75W 11N85W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN DRY AIR OF AN EXTENSIVE MAGNITUDE COVERS
THE GULF WATERS EAST OF 90W. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N76W TO 26N80W...JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA COAST. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 26N80W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N84W...TO 25N90W AND 27N94W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS
WEST OF 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND THE MEXICO COAST ARE IN AN AREA OF
SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF JEANNE...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70.5W AND 72W...AND FROM
17N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RADIATES
AWAY FROM THE FLOW AROUND T.S. JEANNE...OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE WATERS JUST EAST OF JAMAICA...
TO 16N76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW EAST OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND
84W...AND SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W...SOME WITH SURFACE
TRADEWINDS AND SOME WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 19/1500 UTC SHOW A TROUGH
FROM 350 MB UPWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF T.S. JEANNE...
THROUGH 33N56W TO 27N58W 20N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO
30N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. TROUGH FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N33W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTER GOES FROM
17N TO 37N BETWEEN 4W AND 25W. THIS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN IN THIS
AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
15N BETWEEN 10W OVER AFRICA AND 35W.

$$
MT


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